LONDON -- As its self-imposed deadline neared, Greece looked set Thursday evening to clinch a landmark debt restructuring deal with its private-sector lenders, clearing the way for the release of bailout funds from Europe and the International Monetary Fund that would save the country from default. Already, 60 percent of those holding Greek bonds — mostly large European banks and local institutions in Greece — have publicly agreed to swap their old Greek bonds written under local law for a package of new securities, accepting losses of as much as 75 percent in return for more secure bonds that have a greater prospect of actually being paid off. And as the Thursday night deadline neared, reports suggested that the “voluntary” participation rate could reach 70 percent or higher. By the terms of the newly revamped Greek bond contracts, a 66 percent participation rate would allow for Athens to invoke collective-action clauses, requiring even the holdouts to take the same losses whether they like it or not. Given all the twists and turns in the negotiations, something could still go wrong at the last minute, participants said, but most bond investors and government officials were expecting a positive outcome. “It’s a done deal,” said Hans Humes, the president and chief investment officer of Greylock Capital in New York, whose fund is a member of the committee of banks that negotiated the transaction. “I would not be surprised to see 75 percent.” Greek officials said the total number of participants in the deal would be announced at 6 a.m. Friday morning, London time. The Greek Finance Ministry had been hoping to announce a 90 percent figure before activating the collective-action clauses, but it is expected to go ahead anyway as long as it reaches the legal threshold. One remaining wild card in the deal is the €20 billion, or $26.5 billion, of Greek bonds governed by foreign law. These securities have attracted the attention of potential holdouts because they afford better legal protection and provide an easier opportunity for speculators who have bought them at a discount on the open market in hopes of extracting a better deal. Interest in these bonds may be on the wane, though, now that Petros Christodoulou, the head of Greece’s debt management agency, has vowed to wavering bondholders that there will be no sweetheart deals for hold outs. “We know what money we have and we know what money we don’t have,” he said during a recent interview. “My blood curdles to think what happens if this deal does not get done.” The Institute of International Finance, the global banking body that has represented private bond holders in the discussion, circulated a confidential memorandum to European leaders recently estimating that a disorderly Greek default and departure from the euro could result in losses to banks, corporations and governments of as much as €1 trillion. Seen by many as a scare tactic, it nevertheless seems to have had an effect on some of the potential holdouts. Put in such stark terms, many investors have come to the conclusion that it is better to accept the swap and receive a package of foreign-law Greek bonds and securities from Europe’s rescue fund than to end up with nearly worthless bonds subject to Greek law. The value of Greek 10-year bonds recently hit an all time low of 16 cents on the euro. “This is the best offer they can make to investors,” said Ioannis Sokos, a bond analyst at BNP Paribas. “Because at the end of the day Greece has no cash.” Still, many foreign investors believe that even with a successful debt swap, the Greek debt burden will remain untenable, well above the 120 percent of Greece’s gross domestic product that the I.M.F. considers the highest sustainable level. And with the economy still in free fall and the makeup of the next government uncertain, many analysts contend that Athens may have to restructure its debt again within a year or so. If that proves to be the case, some hedge funds and other investors are talking about the prospects of buying the new foreign-law bonds at rock bottom prices and then fighting Greece in courts outside the country in hopes of earning a handsome profit. The deal also will leave much of Greece’s debt in the hands of official lenders like the European Central Bank and the I.M.F., which may ultimately face large losses themselves if Greece cannot find a way to manage its finances without further bailouts. Legal analysts contend that the Greek government’s strategy of emphasizing in such blunt terms the cost of not participating has been a significant factor behind the deal coming together so quickly. “What is remarkable is the speed with which this has been executed — that is unprecedented,” said Michael Waibel, an expert on sovereign debt law at Cambridge University. “And this very well may have been done by design.”
Louis Vuitton Handbags
Louis Vuitton Outlet
lv bags
没有评论:
发表评论